Paul Skenes has a message for anyone parsing his 2026 season for cracks: relax. Ten months removed from winning the NL Cy Young as a rookie, he’s telling reporters his body is “in a really good spot” and that he’s hopeful for “a substantial number of innings” down the stretch. That’s the language of a guy planning for October. It doesn’t square with a 9-11 record and a 3.95 ERA.
The Cy Young to 9-11 Decline Is Real
After winning the award that’s supposed to open a decade of this kind of dominance, Skenes has spent the summer compiling a 9-11 record and a 3.95 ERA across 31 starts. It’s the first sustained stretch of mediocrity in his brief career. Twelve months ago, when the Pirates’ rebuild narrative centered on his dominance, he was the reigning NL Cy Young winner with no equal in his own rotation. This year he’s been a solid mid-rotation arm on a team with nothing to show for it.
Nobody here is using the phrase “rock bottom.” Skenes wouldn’t sign off on it, and the reporting doesn’t support it. But composure isn’t performance, and Pittsburgh needed both this year.
Why Skenes’ Optimism Doesn’t Erase the Numbers
“I think it’s good just having my body in a really good spot for the last month or so of the regular season,” Skenes told reporters recently, “and hopefully a substantial number of innings after that.” It’s about as close as he’s come to publicly acknowledging the weight of this season, and it’s still framed entirely as reassurance. He’s not conceding anything.
The velocity dip is the detail that keeps surfacing in every conversation about him, and Skenes doesn’t dispute it’s happened. “I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped,” he said in a separate interview. “It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all.” He’s also grown annoyed at the question itself, noting it’s “funny when reporters only ask about velocity when I don’t have a good outing” — a fair jab at selective coverage that still doesn’t explain the bad outings.
He’s not wrong that velocity isn’t everything. He’s also 9-11.
“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes said, which is either admirable self-belief or the exact sentence a pitcher says right before he has to adjust anyway.
The Pirates’ Failure Isn’t About Skenes Alone
None of this is happening in a vacuum. Pittsburgh sits at 66-71, 18 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, comfortably out of contention since well before August. A Cy Young winner regressing on a losing team draws less scrutiny than one regressing on a contender, but it also means Skenes’ dip has zero cover from a winning record.
Fans have been unusually measured about it, more frustrated with a front office that let a Cy Young-caliber core rot behind a noncompetitive roster than with Skenes himself. That’s the correct read. He’s 24, healthy by his own account, and still generating the kind of quotes that suggest he knows exactly where he stands.
The rest-management tension isn’t new, either. Skenes pushed back publicly when the team gave him extra time off before a start earlier this month:
Paul Skenes is NOT happy with the Pirates about the decision to give him extra rest before his last start, per @ThePoniExpress
There are currently no plans to shut him down pic.twitter.com/KSONl7wcaa
— Punchoutpitch (@Punchoutpitch) August 20, 2026
“I’ve been learning a lot and I’ll continue to learn a lot,” Skenes said. “Just got to keep going.” It reads like a guy who understands the difference between staying composed and pretending the numbers don’t exist, even if his public tone hasn’t fully caught up to his stat line.
Skenes has two months left to find out whether 2026 was a blip or something more complicated. Given the state of everything around him in Pittsburgh, patience is the only strategy anyone actually has.
