Analysis

The Streak Is Over. Paul Skenes Is Still Going to Win the Cy Young.

The walk streak ended May 17. Adolis Garcรญa drew a four-pitch walk against the Phillies, and 39 innings of nothing came to a stop. Pirates Twitter had a small moment of silence. Then everyone moved on and started writing the wrong take.

The wrong take is that the ERA climbing from 1.98 to 3.00 means something bad is happening. It doesn’t. It means Paul Skenes is a human pitcher who had an insane five-week run and is now pitching like the best pitcher in the National League instead of the best pitcher in recorded human history. That’s a distinction worth making.

Here’s what actually happened during that stretch: 39 consecutive innings without a walk. CBS Sports put it plainly: “Paul Skenes has the lowest ERA through 55 career major league starts of anyone in the Live Ball Era.” That’s not a hot streak. That’s a historical marker. The kind of thing that gets a line in a Wikipedia article long after the guy retires.

The 40 strikeouts he recorded between walks โ€” most in Pirates history going back to 1893 โ€” now just lives there permanently in the franchise record books. Bob Friend never did it. Roberto Clemente played his whole career behind pitchers who never did it. Paul Skenes did it in his second season.

He also became just the fourth pitcher since 1901 to have back-to-back starts of 8+ innings, two or fewer hits, and zero walks. Only three men before him, going back 120 years. That’s the company.

The narrative that’s going to spread โ€” because it always spreads โ€” is that Skenes “came back to earth.” The 6-4 record will be cited. The ERA will be cited. What won’t be cited: a 3.00 ERA while leading the Cy Young race by a wide margin is not a collapse. It is regression to a mean that still places you comfortably ahead of every other starter in the league.

MLB.com’s 39-panelist expert poll gave Skenes 27 first-place votes for the NL Cy Young. The betting markets have him at +200 to +210. Bleacher Nation summed it up: “Skenes is the name to beat in the NL race.” Twenty-seven out of thirty-nine voters. Against the field.

The Cubs come to PNC Park tonight at 6:40. If Skenes is on the mound, he’s going to throw strikes, he’s going to get some guys out, and there might even be a walk or two. That’s allowed now. He already proved the point.

A 3.00 ERA from the guy who owns the lowest career ERA through 55 starts in the Live Ball Era isn’t a warning sign. It’s just a Tuesday.

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